I have made a total of 6 armor skilled crafts, each with 250 sparks committed to the craft. My goal is to craft purple items that require 250 sparks for 100% skill application. In the six crafts, I lost 250 sparks to a 1% chance at getting a orange instread of a purple. I then crafted blade shard on 1 craft and then 4 crafts in a row of muddle. 4 muddles in a row. There are 13 possible skills (listed below) so the probability of crafting 4 muddles in a row by chance is = 1/13 * 1/13 * 1/13 * 1/13 = 1 in 28,561. There is no way that crafting a skill is random. This is either intentional weighted to draw cash out of the players to my sparks on momya or its broken.

I agree whit you harrow  and law and muddle you have more change for getting them.